On the eve of the administrative merger, the real estate market in these two key industrial provinces in the North has seen clear movements. Many investors expect that the merger process will be a catalyst to promote infrastructure, planning and real estate values to a new level.
Bac Giang: Market recovers impressively after a period of stagnation
After the lull of 2022–2023, Bac Giang Real Estate has had an impressive recovery since the beginning of 2024. According to the Bac Giang Real Estate Association, the first quarter of 2024 recorded about 3.400 real estate transactions through notarization, a significant increase over the same period last year. The average selling price in the whole market increased by 10-15% compared to the bottom in 2023.
According to data from the Department of Justice of Bac Giang province, in the first quarter of 1 alone, the whole province recorded more than 2024 real estate transfer transactions through notarization, an increase of nearly 3.400% over the same period last year.
In particular, the land auction market has become more active, with many auctions setting records. For example, the auction of 65 land lots in Viet Yen town on May 15 had a total starting price of VND5 billion, but the winning price was up to VND93,9 billion, a difference of VND198,8 billion. The land lots started at VND104-13 million/m20 but the winning price reached VND2-35 million/m50, with some lots reaching over VND2 million/m60.
Residential land prices in communes near industrial parks such as Tang Tien, Van Trung, Hong Thai (Viet Yen) increased by 20-30% compared to the end of 2023. Lang Giang and Yen Dung districts - two localities in the merger area - also recorded bustling transactions, especially in the housing segment for experts and small-scale land plots.
The merger of Yen Dung district into Bac Giang city from January 1, 1 also created a new “wave” of expectations for the market. Areas such as Nham Bien town, Tan Lieu, Huong Gian… recorded a price increase of 2025-5% in just the past few months, according to statistics from a local brokerage unit.
Bac Ninh: New supply is limited, prices remain high
Meanwhile, in Bac Ninh, the market is somewhat more stable but the price level remains high, especially in areas with good infrastructure connections such as Tu Son, Yen Phong and Que Vo.
According to the first quarter 1 report of a reputable real estate research unit in the market, the selling price level in Bac Ninh has not decreased, even increased slightly by 2025-3% compared to the same period. Land prices in Tu Son range from 5-45 million VND/m70 depending on location, Yen Phong reaches about 2-25 million VND/m40, while the central area of Bac Ninh city still maintains the level of 2-70 million VND/m100.
It is worth noting that the supply of new projects in Bac Ninh is scarce because many projects are waiting for planning review after the implementation of the administrative arrangement project. Some areas such as Tien Du and Thuan Thanh - where the district is expected to be merged - are becoming destinations for long-term investors, especially with cash flow targeting industrial parks and logistics services.
In 2024, Bac Ninh will still maintain its top position in the country in attracting FDI capital. According to the Bac Ninh Statistics Office, the province has licensed 359 new FDI projects, with a total registered capital of 1,8 billion USD (an increase of 70,7% over the previous year). Including newly granted capital, adjusted capital and capital contribution to buy shares, Bac Ninh has attracted about 4,8 billion USD of FDI in 2024.
Major projects contributing to boosting the demand for industrial real estate and worker housing include: Foxconn's FCPV factory: 383 million USD; Goertek Nam Son - Hap Linh: 280 million USD; Victory Giant Vietnam: 260 million USD; LOGOS Yen Phong II-A: 74 million USD
In addition, Bac Ninh is currently planning to implement 53 social housing projects, with a total area of 170 hectares, with about 73.000 apartments serving more than 219.000 workers - according to the provincial Department of Construction. This is a strategic step to balance the market and solve the housing problem for the growing workforce in industrial parks.
Infrastructure is the lever
Both Bac Ninh and Bac Giang are located in the extended Capital Region, benefiting greatly from strategic infrastructure routes that are being and will be deployed.
For example, Ring Road 4 of the Capital Region passes through Bac Ninh and connects directly to Hiep Hoa and Viet Yen districts of Bac Giang.
The road connecting National Highway 18 - Yen Phong Industrial Park - Que Vo Industrial Park has been and is being expanded, creating conditions for the circulation of goods and people.
Or like the Ninh Binh - Bac Giang expressway, the planning phase has been completed and is expected to be completed before 2030.
Ring Road 5 is expected to connect the areas. urban – Inter-provincial industry, opening up opportunities for price increases in suburban districts such as Luc Nam, Luc Ngan (Bac Giang) and Gia Binh, Luong Tai (Bac Ninh).
In particular, the project of the route connecting Gia Binh airport with Hanoi capital has also been proposed, with a total capital of more than 71.000 billion VND, bringing many expectations about the ability to connect as well as increase the value of real estate in this area.
Post-merger forecast: Differentiation by location and planning
Experts from BHS Group and Savills Vietnam both commented that after the merger, localities upgraded from communes to wards or from districts to towns may witness a new price increase, especially in core administrative areas, along industrial parks, and near main traffic routes.
However, the market will not be “hot” in general but will have clear differentiation. Areas with infrastructure that has not kept up, lack planning or are outside the development corridor will find it difficult to grow quickly.
The most potential segments in the period 2025-2027 are assessed to be: Industrial real estate, worker housing, land plots in areas bordering new urban areas and areas with clear zoning plans after the merger.
In general, the event of administrative unit arrangement in Bac Ninh and Bac Giang is not only a reform of the apparatus but also a driving force to reshape the entire urban and industrial structure, thereby opening up many opportunities for the real estate market. However, this is a long-term game, investors need to closely monitor detailed planning, infrastructure implementation progress and investment capital flow shifts.
(Source: CafeLand)
